Hurricane Grace
Hurricane Grace, known in the media as Superstorm Grace, was the costliest natural disaster on record worldwide, and was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. It was a long lived, deadly and destructive tropical cyclone that resulted in cataclysmic damage in parts of the Caribbean and U.S gulf coast. Originating from a tropical wave on August 28, Grace powered across the Atlantic, destroying anything in the storm's path. In its wake, Grace left death and destruction. The storm was extremely destructive and claimed over 5,000 lives. As the 7th named storm, 2nd hurricane, and 1st major hurricane of the annual season, Grace originated from a well-defined tropical wave that emerged off Africa on August 27. In favorable conditions, it quickly developed into Tropical Storm Grace, and intensified into a hurricane in under 24 hours. The storm fluctuated in strength as it traversed the tropical Atlantic, but intensified quickly into a powerful hurricane as it laid waste to the Caribbean. Once it emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, it underwent explosive intensification, peaking as the third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record. It would then go on to cause cataclysmic damage in Texas and Louisiana, before entering the central U.S and losing tropical characteristics on September 18. Total damage estimates from Grace come in at $615 billion, cementing it by far as the costliest tropical cyclone and natural disaster on record. While being far from the deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclone, it has killed about 5,800 people. Meteorological History A tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on August 27, 2045. At the time, models had anticipated a strong hurricane forming several days in advance. Because of this, the wave was instantly invested for tropical development. The wave began to develop banding as it moved into favorable conditions, and less than 24 hours after emerging off the coast of Africa, the proper conditions were met for a tropical storm. The storm was named Grace. When Grace was named, it was moving northwest, and was already developing an eyewall. Maximum sustained winds rose quickly as a small eye emerged on satellite. Based on this combined with dvorak estimates, Grace was upgraded to a hurricane on August 29. As a newly upgraded hurricane, Grace dipped westward, and approached Cape Verde. Hurricane warnings were posted as Grace showed no signs of weakening. Grace moved through the Islands at Category 1 intensity, causing strong winds and heavy rains. As Grace exited the Cape Verde islands, it reached an initial peak intensity of 105 mph, and a minimum pressure of 972 millibars, or a moderate Category 2 hurricane. Shortly after this peak, an eyewall replacement cycle occurred, bringing Grace back down to Category 1 status on September 1. Grace's organization was further halted by increasing wind shear in the Main Development Region (MDR). Grace fought against the shear, fluctuating between tropical storm and hurricane status, as the eye popped in and out of view. By September 6, Grace was maintaining hurricane intensity once again, but the eye remained hidden under the convection. Gradual intensification occurred from here until September 7, when Grace abruptly and unexpectedly began explosive intensification. The storm's eye cleared out as Grace intensified into a major hurricane that day, becoming the first of the season. The eye took on a pinhole nature as Grace reached a new peak, this one being 130 mph. Grace underwent another eyewall replacement cycle as it began curving south. On September 9, Grace made landfall in Hatillo, Puerto Rico as a minimal Category 4 hurricane. The terrain of Puerto Rico knocked out Grace's eye, but it only weakened to 100 mph winds. It remained a Category 2 hurricane until it made a second landfall in Palmar de Ocoa, Dominican Republic. After taking a second beating, Grace finally weakened below hurricane status, and emerged off Haiti into the Caribbean sea on September 11. Despite being greatly disorganized, Grace quickly spun up into a hurricane, but intensified slowly. By September 13, Grace managed to re-organize and intensified into a minimal major hurricane as it made landfall in Cancun, Mexico. Grace weakened to Category 1 status as it emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, but the terrain of the Yucatan Peninsula allowed Grace's core to re-tighten. On September 14, Grace developed a new pinhole eye, and began explosive intensification once again, but with the warmer waters of the gulf of Mexico, Grace intensified further. Grace's explosive intensification allowed it to attain Category 5 intensity on September 15, as measured by recon aircraft. The pressure dropped at an extreme rate, going from 947 millibars to 884 millibars in only 42 hours. This is when Grace reached its true peak, as a strong Category 5 hurricane with 190 mph winds, and a pressure of 884 millibars. At the time, it was the second most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, but was bumped to third, by Omar in 2050. Grace was slow to weaken following peak, and on September 16, Grace ultimately made a long-anticipated landfall in Port Aransas, Texas, with sustained winds of 165 mph. This is the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Andrew. Despite being over land, Grace was slow to weaken, due to proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. Grace remained a Category 5 hurricane until it emerged off Texas on September 17. Later that day, Grace made landfall in Rutherford Beach, Louisiana, as a large Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. This time, Grace took a more definitive path inland, becoming a large tropical mess by late that night. On September 18, the now-Tropical Depression Grace was picked up by a storm front, and was declared post-tropical. In a sort of final attack, the remnants of Grace fueled the storm front, resulting in severe thunderstorms across the east coast. Preparations Cape Verde Islands Upon a hurricane warning being put in place, the Cape Verde islands issued a curfew, and closed all major airports to prepare for the hurricane. All boating services were also stopped when strong waves approached the island, and people with privately owned boats were told to dock their boats. Lesser Antilles Prior to the approach of Grace, it was expected to track straight through the Lesser Antilles, because of this, a state of emergency was declared in Tortola, St. Martin, St. Thomas, and many other islands. Evacuations to shelters began soon after, especially for those in low-lying areas, which are the most prone to storm surge. When Grace was a day from expected approach, all airports and other services were closed. Caribbean The islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica were all under threat from Grace. While most of them were able to take quick action, Hispaniola was slow to keep things moving, and this may have contributed to the great loss of life there, especially in Haiti. All four locations declared a state of emergency after Grace struck Puerto Rico at Category 4 intensity. Mexico Mexico, mainly the Yucatan Peninsula, began preparing when Grace's cone suggested a close pass, or landfall was possible. They began to prepare, but were not expecting a large impact until the cone shifted towards Cancun. As Grace was only 12 hours from landfall, and a Category 2 hurricane at this point, mandatory evacuations were put in place for most of the northern Yucatan, and appropriate shelters were opened. United States Upon Grace's approach to Texas, immediate action was to take place, regarding Grace's intensity. Evacuations began over two days before expected landfall, with the governor telling people to "tie down anything you think you care about". By September 14, hurricane warnings extended across the entire coast of Texas, and most major airports and activities were closed by the following day (except for some in the northern part of the state). Louisiana started preparing when the easterly turn became more apparent. The city of Cameron, Louisiana began closing airports and stopping major services when the hurricane was a day away from its strike. All major facilities were shut down by September 17. Aftermath Losses The island of Puerto Rico suffered the strongest direct hit from a tropical cyclone since Hurricane Maria. It made landfall as a low-end Category 4 hurricane, causing strong winds and heavy rain. Despite this, though, damage was less than anticipated, mainly because most of the hurricane-force winds were restricted to the northwestern part of the island. At least 20 people drowned, and a further 5 people were killed by debris. Hispaniola took a major hit from Grace, worsening the damage from Hurricane Emilius the previous year. Impacts in the Dominican Republic were somewhat low, and not very notable, and was limited to about 12 deaths. Impacts in Haiti, however, were much worse. Over 4,000 people are confirmed dead as of January 2046, and about $2 Billion in damage has been recorded. The beautiful Cancun was left in ruins, after Grace made a direct landfall as a minimal Category 3 hurricane. Several resorts across the city sustained major damage, as well as storm surge flooding. At least 50 people are confirmed dead. It is currently estimated that Cancun will re-open by Spring 2047. Otherwise, impacts in Mexico were minimal. Impacts in Texas & the United States Thousands of people in Texas were left without electricity as Grace made landfall. At least 917 people are confirmed dead, and several hundred are still missing. Following the hurricane, many residents were backed up on highways for days, just to see if their house was intact. Grace's famous sweep across Texas, at Category 5 intensity, was a devastating blow to Houston, which saw their worst hurricane event since Hurricane Harvey. Floodwaters exceeded 45 inches, and while not nearly as high as Harvey, was aided by surface winds of Category 4 intensity. As of 2046, damages are in excess of $560 Billion. Louisiana suffered a blow from a Category 4 hurricane, and while the impacts were severe, they were nowhere near Texas's turmoil. About $7 Billion in damage was confirmed, with 36 dead. Government Response The Government was rewarded for their quick response during Grace, as they had learned their lesson from previous hurricanes. FEMA was sending people to Texas only days after the hurricane left the state, and rescue workers were deployed across the Caribbean. Several residents also took to their boats to rescue those trapped in their homes. Environmental Factors Several environmental factors took part in the exact impact of Grace, from how much storm surge struck to how much rain fell. Geography The geography of Texas is fairly low in the earth, and its soil, which has some clay in it, is not conducive for draining of water. These factors, combined with Texas's rain-heavy climate, factored into Grace's extreme flood damage, and how so much water was able to linger in Texas. And something even more notable, there is a tendency for storms to move very slowly over the region, allowing them to produce tremendous amounts of rain over an extended period, as occurred during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, and Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Intensity At the time of landfall, Grace was at Category 5 intensity, which had not occurred in the United States since 1992. Because of this, the winds over land were much stronger than average, causing in fast storm surge, inundating the coastline. The Texas coast suffered extreme damage from Grace, as it paralleled the coast at Category 5 status. Climate Change The Gulf of Mexico is known for hurricanes in August and September, so their incidence alone cannot be attributed to global warming, but the warming climate does influence certain attributes of storms. Studies in this regard show that storms tend to intensify more rapidly prior to landfall. While Grace did intensify in the Gulf of Mexico extremely rapidly, it actually weakened prior to landfall, dropping from 190 mph at peak, to 165 mph when it made landfall. Several attributes of Grace can be omitted to climate change, including the extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, and the amount of rain produced. But it should be expressed that nothing is directly related to climate change. Records * Grace was the strongest hurricane to strike Cape Verde, overcoming the record set by Fred in 2015, with winds of 90 mph. * At the time, Grace was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico, with a pressure of 884 mbar, beating Bill/Rita's record of 895. This record would be beaten five years later by Hurricane Omar, however. * Grace is by far the most destructive natural disaster on record, with over $600 Billion in damage confirmed. * Grace is the third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, behind Wilma of 2005 and Omar of 2050. * Grace, with a score of 78.43, has the highest ACE value of any Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, surpassing the record set by the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane. Retirement On April 11, 2051, three names were selected as potential replacements. These names were Griselda, Gina, and Gabby. On April 13, 2051, at the annual convention of the RA IV Hurricane Committee, the name Grace was officially retired due to its long swath of catastrophic damage across the Caribbean and United States. From the three names, Gina was selected to replace Grace for the 2051 season.Category:Record-breaking hurricanes Category:Category 5 hurricanes Category:Intense Storms Category:Cataclysmic Storms Category:Devastating Storms Category:Retired storms Category:Deadly storms